this is the agenda for a two-hour session

the A3 is ready to download if you go down...

it only takes a short pull...

to get the flow from the siphon going...

this is the A3, the figures will be explained in the slides, don't worry :-)

Traditional project planning

spoiler: this is not the most efficient way of doing things!
...we want control and accountability, but...

Discuss with your neighbour:
How do you plan today?

Things are complicated...

Too much detail of the past
make predictions worse...

Common traps

1. We think in lists and have a tendency to put actions one after another
   which leads to longer than necessary projects.
   
   
2. We want control and forget that the more detailed the plan the more
   fragile it gets.
   
   
3. We want to be forceful and bend the future to our will instead of
   dealing with reality. We have the impossible dream that plans are time tables.
   
   A train driver cannot be allowed the same flexibility as a sheepdog.
   

We assume too much...

1. "We know how everything should be done, right from the start"
   
2. "The customer will not change their minds"
   
3. "The world will not change during the project"
   
4. "The salesman's dilemma does not exist"
   
   We act like the project is a canon ball and nothing will influence its flight.
   But would we trust an airplane sent to New York without a pilot or navigation system?
   

Management by means

spoiler: this is better but not enough!
...but, it is the bleeding edge in civil construction, forgotten since the '30s...

Empire state building

• 500 trucks with material per day
• no storage space
• no flood lights - could only work days
• impossible to work during winter
  
  

Key dates

• September 22, 1929: Demolition started
• January 22, 1930: Excavation started
• March 17, 1930: Construction started
• November 13, 1930: Exterior completed
• May 1, 1931: Building opened, exactly on
  time and 18% below budget
  
  

The secret...

• independent steel, walls, windows and floors
• detailed drawings as they were needed
• extra investments in fittings allowing flexibility
• daily replanning... using what they had on the day
• flexible workforce... they worked with
  resource buffers and not time buffers
  

Learning from three Chinese examples

1. What is the key learning from this 15 day hotel?
   
   
2. and from this bridge in Beijing?
   
   
3. or this rail road construction
   
   

there is an optimum traffic intensity...
what is yours?

let's move on to something more exiting...

Lean/Agile project
planning

spoiler: this is balance act between surprise and peace of mind!
doing something new is about learning... as fast as possible :-)

independent events have a 'normal' distribution

even a random walk... is 'normal'...

different size and speed of workpackages...
and you have to fail to learn!

turbulent flows are part of chaos theory

chaotic results can be avoided with management of queues

different tools for different jobs!

The solution :-)

• Planning board: Overview, to do, doing, done
• Clear roles: Team, Product owner and 'scrum master'
• Common backlog with user stories
• Definitions of Done
• Daily stand-up
• Pull system with 'work in progress limits'
• Iterative process in 2-3 week sprints
• Planning before sprint and retrospective afterwards
  
  

Let's dive deeper

Value Stream Mapping

A value stream is all activities, both value adding and non-value adding, needed to refine and produce a product or service.

Queues

A sequence of messages or jobs held in temporary storage awaiting transmission or processing.

User stories

A description consisting of one or more sentences in the everyday or business language of the end user or user of a system that captures what a user does or needs to do as part of his or her job function.

Keywords:

select user stories on cost of delay priority
break down to size that fits in sprint
separate knowledge gaps from implementation
let team decide on time estimate definition of done

Cost of delay

The cost of not having the product or service on the market when customers exist and would purchase if they could.

Lean Management

How to manage so that flow can happen...

By Gerald Weinberg in his book Quality Software Management:
Systems Thinking

SCRUM

A key principle of scrum is its recognition that during production processes, the customers can change their minds about what they want and need.

Let's repeat the Scrum method